[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 2 10:15:26 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: * YELLOW *
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Active 
Region 564 will rotate beyond the west solar limb today. There 
are no other regions of significant magnetic complexity on the 
visible disk. Region 567 has minor potential for C- to M-class 
activity but has been mostly inert on the current rotation. A 
northern hemisphere extension to the currently geoeffective coronal 
hole should maintain an elevated solar wind stream for several 
more days. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to active, with storm
periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 01 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3223 3333
      Darwin              11   3222 3333
      Townsville          12   3223 3333
      Learmonth           13   3222 4332
      Culgoora            10   2223 2332
      Canberra            14   3223 3433
      Hobart              16   3333 3433
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--3 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            69   (Active)
      Canberra           122   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             104   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21   2335 5433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar    25    active 
03 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
04 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions today at low to mid latitudes 
were mostly unsettled, with isolated active periods. Active to 
storm period conditions were observed at high latitudes. Solar 
wind speed approached 700 km/s towards the end of the UT day. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
mostly about neuttral, with a sustained period of mostly southward 
bias in the latter part of the UT day. The neutral Bz polarity 
has limited geomagnetic disturbance to high latitudes, despite 
quite high solar wind speeds. Expect similar conditions today, 
with the possibility of active to storm conditions should the 
Bz polarity trend southward for an extended period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Fair           Fair          
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes expected 
for the next two to three days due to recurrent coronal hole 
wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values over the 
      UT day, with isolated periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed 
                10-30% at times S Aus/NZ regions. 
03 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 
at times over the next three days due to a recurrent coronal 
hole wind stream. Some significnt depressions observed at central 
to southern Aus latitudes after local dawn today. Spread-F conditions 
observed generally in Antarctic regions over the UT day. Equatorial/N 
Aus regions conditions should remain mostly near normal. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Feb
Speed: 670 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   448000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list