[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 1 10:17:29 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Active
region 564 remains quite large, but appears to have declined
somewhat in complexity. This region is now quite close to the
west solar limb. There is still a possibility of major flare
activity today from region 564. A northern hemisphere coronal
hole is now in geoeffective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A K
Australian Region 16 2325 3323
Darwin 12 2324 3223
Townsville 14 2324 3333
Learmonth 15 3--- ---4
Culgoora 14 1325 3223
Canberra 16 2325 3323
Hobart 16 2425 3222
Casey(Ant) 26 ---5 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 FEB :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20 2354 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 25 active
02 Mar 20 active
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters increased steadily over the UT
day under the influence of a geoeffectively positioned coronal
hole. Solar wind speed appears to have peaked at around 650 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has shown
reduced amplitude fluctuations, with an average neutral value.
This has limited geomagnetic disturbance to minor storm periods
at high latitudes, and an isolated minor storm period around
mid-UT day at lower latitudes. Expect continuing periods of minor
storm conditions for the next two days, declining to mostly unsettled
to active conditions by day three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes expected
for the next two to three days due to recurrent coronal hole
wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Feb 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15-20% during local night,
and after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values over the
UT day with isolated periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
10-20% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
02 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
10-20% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
03 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
at times over the next three days due to a recurrent coronal
hole wind stream. Equatorial/N Aus regions conditions should
remain mostly near normal.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 222000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list