[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 30 09:24:08 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 0006UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the UT day
and is now at 450km/sec. ACE EPAM shock precursor data channels
continue to show a declining trend, ie no sign yet of the anticiapated
mass ejection arrival, which is statistically indicated by increased
(> 10^4) flux levels in the lowest data channel. This probably
indicates that the mass ejection will arrive later than expected,
and possibly with less geoeffectiveness. Solar region 652 has
rotated around the north-west solar limb, and was the origin of
the M2 flare. A bright south west directed mass ejection is
visible in LASCO C3 imagery starting at around 13UT. This event
appears to be a behind the limb event, presumably from solar
region 649. A solar filament has been reported by SEC/USAF before
12UT. No solar mass ejection or Type II sweep was reported. Solar
region 654 continues located in the centre of the solar disk,
continues to show growth, but remains relatively magnetically simple.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 2322 0112
Darwin 5 2321 1113
Townsville 7 2322 1120
Learmonth 3 1221 0111
Culgoora 6 2322 0112
Canberra 5 1322 0102
Hobart 5 1322 0102
Casey(Ant) 13 3443 1122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JUL :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3333 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 18 Initially at quiet to unsettled levels, active
to minor storm levels now expected late in UT
day.
31 Jul 16 Initially at active to minor storm levels, declining
to unsettled second half of UT day.
01 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 29 July and
is current for interval 29-30 July. Forecast storm conditions
have been reduced in magnitude and anticipated arrival time pushed
back due to lack of mass ejection signature in ACE satellite
EPAM data channels. Mass ejection at this stage is still expected
to arrive but may be moving slower than expected reducing geoeffectiveness.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : Began at 2015UT 27/07, Ended at 0005UT 28/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
31 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are now expected for mid to high
latitudes late in the UT day today, and are now expected to be
less significant.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 29 July
and is current for interval 30-31 July. Southern Aus/NZ region
MUFs depressed 15% yesterday. Anticipated arrival of mass ejection
has yet to occur. Depressed conditions for southern Aus/NZ region
slipped out by 1 day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+09 (very high)
X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 632 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list