[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 29 09:39:42 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was at approximately 900km/sec for 
the first hour of the UT day, then rapidly declined to 700km/sec. 
Wind speed then gradually declined over the remainder of the 
UT day to 600km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated mildly southward over the UT day. Solar 
region 652, now nearing the western solar limb, produced a long 
duration C6.2 xray flare maxing at 0811UT, and several lower 
C class events later in the UT day. A review of the LASCO spaced 
based coronagraph showed a western directed coronal mass ejection, 
first visible in C3 wide angle imagery at around 0518UT. This 
mass ejection is presumed to be associated with the long duration 
C6 event from departing flare active region 652. The Culgoora 
Spectrograph showed an probable weak to moderate Type IV emission 
descending in frequency from 171Mhz, at 03UT to 18Mhz at 06UT. 
However no clear Type II was discernable. A glancing blow from 
this mass ejection is expected to arrive late 29/early 30 July. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3322 3234
      Darwin              11   2322 3335
      Townsville          10   3322 2235
      Learmonth           12   3322 3335
      Culgoora            10   3322 2234
      Canberra            12   3332 3234
      Hobart              11   3332 3224
      Casey(Ant)          15   3333 3-33
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUL : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              84   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       119
           Planetary            162   8788 9755     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul    18    Initially unsettled, storm conditions possible 
                late in UT day. 
30 Jul    40    Initially at minor storm levels, then declining 
                to active levels. 
31 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be initially at 
unsettled levels for today. A coronal mass ejection is expecte 
dto arrive late in the UT day or early on 30 July. This CME was 
not directly aimed at the Earth, and activity will probably be 
confined to first half of UT day on 30 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 1920UT 25/07, Ended at 1445UT 27/07
 and, Began at 1510UT 27/07, Ended at 1735UT 27/07
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Jul      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Absorption observed at polar regions over past 24 hours, 
degrading HF comms quality. HF conditions for today are expected 
to be mostly normal. However, degraded comms conditions are expected 
for mid to high latitudes late in the UT day or ealry on 30 July 
due to expected arrival of coronal mass ejection induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jul    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 30% first half UT day,
      Enhanced by 45% later half the UT day.
      Spoaraid E blanketing, and absorption 
      observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul    25    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Jul    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
31 Jul    15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern Aus regional MUFs were depressed yesterday 
following geomagnetic storm activity on 27 July. Some southern 
region sites are 15% depressed after local dawn this morning. 
Generally fair to normal conditions are expected for today. However, 
a possible ionospheric depression response may occur on late 
in UT day on 29 July and on 30 July due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity from a recent coronal mass ejection. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 883 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   205000 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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