[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 28 09:55:48 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Moderate
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the past 24 hours.
Active region 652 which is approaching the west limb produced
two M-Class events and some minor C-Class events. Both M-Class
flares were of the order of M1.1 at 0540UT and M1.4 at 2010UT.
The proton event from 25July long duration M-Class flare is still
in effect, with greater than 10MeV proton levels just above the
the event threshold level. Solar wind speed continued to rise
after the sudden impulse from the 25July CME continued to arrive
at the beginning of the UT day where it peaked at 1050km/s at
0120UT after which it gradually fell to be at the high speed
of 850km/s at the time of this report. The north south component
of the inter planetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-10nT from 0000UT to 0340UT after which it remained south till
1400UT with a maximum of -22nT. Severe geomagnetic storm levels
were observed during this period. Bz then went to -10nT and remained
so to the time of this report. Region 652 remains unchanged in
its magnetic complexity and has undergone a small amount of decay.
It still holds the potential for further flare activity over
the next 24 hours after which it is expected to rotate off disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Active to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 85 5667 7645
Darwin 70 5656 7634
Townsville 76 5667 6645
Learmonth 89 5657 7745
Culgoora 83 5667 7635
Canberra 98 6677 7645
Hobart 73 56-- -745
Casey(Ant) 45 5555 554-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JUL :
Townsville 65 (Active)
Learmonth 164 (Severe storm)
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 120
Planetary 180
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 31 6433 3236
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 50 Storm levels
29 Jul 25 active
30 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity ranged from Unsettled to Major
Storm levels over the last 24 hours as the effects of the full
halo CME observed on 25July arrived. Conditions are expected
to remain at Minor/Major storm levels over the next 24 hours.
The proton event from the long duration flare on 25July is also
still in progress and expected to finish within the next 24hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 27 07 2004 2015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
29 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions are expected over the next 24
hours, at all latitudes. The proton event from 25July is expected
to subside over the next 24 hours, but still expect degraded
conditions for tran-polar communications. Conditions are expected
to improve on 29-30July with a return to normal conditions after
the geomagnetic conditions return to normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 145% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 26 July
and is current for interval 26-28 July (SWFs) . Southern region
MUFs slightly depressed after local dawn this morning, following
continued geomangetic storm activity. Minor degradation periods
in HF conditions are expected for northern Australia regions
over the next 24 hours. Depressed conditions for southern regions
of AUS/NZ are expected over the next 24 hours with a return to
normal, conditions expected on 29-30July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 639 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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