[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 31 09:58:08 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity declined to low levels today. A mild 
shock was observed in the solar wind after 20UT, probably resulting 
from the flare observed at 28/0610UT. A North-directed partial 
halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 15UT. The absence 
of any significant solar activity on the visible disk suggests 
a backside event. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 2033UT on 
30 Jul. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1112 2112
      Darwin               5   1122 2223
      Townsville           5   1212 2122
      Learmonth            4   1112 2213
      Culgoora             4   1112 2112
      Canberra             3   0112 2112
      Hobart               4   1112 2112
      Casey(Ant)          10   3332 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2332 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Aug    15    Mostly quiet. Chance isolated active periods. 
02 Aug     8    Mostly quiet. Chance isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: A mild shock was observed in the solar wind after 20UT, 
which is probably the result of the X-ray flare observed at 28/0610UT. 
Geomagnetic effects were minimal, with isolated unsettled to 
active periods observed at high latitudes only. A further mild 
shock is possible late on day one to early day two, after which 
conditions should quickly return to mostly quiet. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Localised degradations observed at high latitudes. Mostly normal 
HF conditions expected next few days. Chance isolated degradations 
at high latitudes days one to two in association with geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Variable overnight depressions, otherwise
      near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with localised
      degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    30    near predicted monthly values 
01 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
02 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 29 July 
and is current for interval 30-31 July. Mild solar wind shock 
resulted in minimal effects to HF propagation. Minor overnight 
depressions observed at low latitudes. Possible mild degradations 
at high latitudes late day one to early day two in association 
with a further solar wind shock. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+09 (very high)
       X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 543 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    73700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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