[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 26 11:33:32 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.1 0552UT Confirmed lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0640UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 1349UT possible lower European
M1.1 1531UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the past 24 hours.
Region 652 produced three M-Class events, with a maximum M7.1
event at 0600UT, of which no LASCO imagery was available to determine
if a CME was associated with it. Two further M-Class events from
Region 652 were a M2.2 at 1340UT and a long duration M1.0 event
at 1600UT with an observed full halo CME. A proton event was
also observed in association with the long duration flare. Solar
wind speed was declining from 550km/s to 500km/s from 0000UT
to 0600UT at which it then underwent a sudden increase consistant
with a CME shock arrival, to be at 700km/s at the time fo this
report. The north south component of the inter planetary magnetic
field (Bz) was southward from the beginning of the UT day at
-20nT as major storm levels were observed. At 0600UT with the
shock arrival, Bz changed to -10nT and remained so to 1200UT
at which it then went northward till 1500UT where upon it underwent
major swings in polarity before staying south at -10nT. Region
652 remains unchanged in its magnetic complexity and has only
undergone a small amount of decay. Region 652 holds the potential
for further flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Active to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 39 4545 4556
Darwin 44 4555 -556
Townsville 44 45-5 5555
Learmonth 48 555- -555
Culgoora 41 35-5 -555
Canberra 50 45-- -656
Hobart 51 4--- -656
Casey(Ant) 27 4333 3647
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JUL :
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 80
Planetary 90
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 27 3453 5445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 50 Storm levels
27 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
28 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 25 July and
is current for interval 25-27 July. The geomagnetic activity
ranged from Active to Major Storm levels over the last 24 hours
as the continued effects of the CME's observed on 22-23July arrived.
Conditions are expected to remain at Minor/Major storm levels
throughout the UT day. Active to Major Sotrm levels are expected
for 27-28July with the expected arrival of CME's observed on
25July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 25 07 2004 1920UT and is
in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Fair Fair-Poor Poor(PCA)
27 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
28 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions are expected over the next 24
hours, espscially at mid to high latitudes. A proton event is
in progress at the time of this report which will result in degraded
conditions for tran-polar communications Conditions are expected
to remain so for the next 2 days with periods of degradation
expected at mid and high latitudes while gemoagnetic storm levels
remain high.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 135% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul -10 depressed 20 to 25% (south Aus/NZ)
26 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values (north Aus).
27 Jul -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 25 July
and is current for interval 26 July only. Southern region
MUFs strongly depressed after local dawn this morning, following
overnight geomangetic storm activity. Minor degradation periods in
HF conditions are expected for northern Australia regions over the
next 24 hours. Depressed conditions for southern regions of AUS/NZ
are expected over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 579 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 75800 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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