[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 25 09:46:02 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5/SF 1850UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the past 24 hours.
Region 652 produced two M-Class events, with a M1.0 flare at
0600UT and a M2.5 class flare at 1840UT. Region 652 was also
the source of some minor C-Class events. The LASCO C3 imagery
recorded two non earth directed CME's. Solar wind speed was steady
from 0000UT to 0600UT at which a sudden impulse was observed
in the solar wind parameters and the velocity increased by 100km/s
to remain at 600km/s for the remainder of the UT day. The north
south component of the inter planetary magnetic field (Bz) also
reflected the sudden impulse at 0600UT by increasing in magnitude
to 10nT and then it turned south at 0800UT and remained so for
the rest of the day, with a max. magnitude of -20nT seen at 1600UT.
Region 652 remains unchanged aprt from a small amount of decay
seen in its trailer component. Region 652 still holds the potential
for isolated flare activity.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
24/0200UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 18 3343 4333
Darwin 20 4343 4333
Townsville 20 3343 4433
Learmonth 27 3353 5443
Culgoora 18 3343 4333
Canberra 21 3343 5333
Hobart 17 3332 5323
Casey(Ant) 26 3453 44-5
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUL :
Townsville 18 (Quiet)
Learmonth 58 (Unsettled)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 142 (Severe storm)
Hobart 136 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 47 5666 5532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 16 active
26 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
27 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active over
the last 24 hours as the effects of the 20July CME continued.
These conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 days
as a minor CME event that occured on the 23July is expected to
arrive 25-26July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over the next 2 days
with periods of minor degradations expected at mid and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 65 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
26 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor degradation periods in HF conditions are possible
in the southern regions of AUS/NZ over the next 2 days, with
otherwise Normal conditions expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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