[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 24 09:52:46 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2/SF 1728UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the past 24 hours.
Region 652 again was the only active region, producing two M-Class
flares, with a M2.2 class and a M2.0 class flare at 1710UT and
2125UT respectively. The M2.2 event also had a non earth directed
CME associated with it. A faint full halo CME was observed from
1606UT-2118UT originating from a minor C-Class event from Region
652. The Culgoora Spectrograph continues to display a strong
radio noise storm. Solar wind speed declined from 700km/s at
the beginning of the UT day to be 500km/s at the time of this
report. The north south component of the inter planetary magnetic
field (Bz) was south at -10nT from the beginning of the UT day
till 0800UT upon which it breifly went north at +5nT. It then
returned southward at -10nT after which it went north at 1600UT.
Region 652 did not undergo any change in its size or magnetic
complexity, but still holds the potential for isolated flare
activity.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
23/1705UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Active to minor storm
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 25 3454 4423
Darwin 23 3344 5424
Townsville 26 3354 5424
Learmonth 31 4354 5523
Culgoora 28 3454 5423
Canberra 25 3454 4423
Hobart 24 3454 4413
Casey(Ant) 29 4434 3633
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JUL :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19 2003 3356
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 18 active
25 Jul 16 active
26 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Active over the last 24
hours with the continued arrival of the CME observed on 20 July.
Active to Minor Storm conditions are expected over the next 24
hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations of HF conditions are
expected over the next 2 days, especially at mid and high latitudes,
with conditions returning to normal on day three of this outlook.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 65 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
25 Jul 65 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
26 Jul 65 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected undergo isolated minor periods
of enhancement. Minor degradation periods in the southern regions
of AUS/NZ still possible over the next 2 days, with a return
to normal conditions on day three of this outlook.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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