[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 23 09:57:08 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.1 0032UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the past 24 hours.
Region 652 was the only active region, producing a M9.1 class
flare at 0015UT, with an associated non-earth directed, southward
projected CME as seen on the LASCO C3 imagery. Region 652 also
produced some minor C-Class events, these being of the order
of C5.3 and C5.8 at 0745UT and 1100UT respectively. The Culgoora
Spectrograph continues to display a strong radio noise storm.
Solar wind speed was steady at 400km/s from 0000UT to 1000UT
upon which the sudden impulse from the expected arrival of the
20July CME event caused solar wind parameters to increase, with
the velocity rising to 500km/s and it then steadily rose to be
at 700km/s of the time of this report. The north south component
of the inter planetary magnetic field (Bz) also indicated the
arrival of the CME as it began to oscilate between +/-10nT from
1000UT, after which it then went southward at 1300UT with an
avg. magitude of -10nT and a maximum of -20nT at 2000UT. The
solar wind stream parameters are expected to be at elevated levels
over the next 24hours. Region 652 did not undergo any change
in its size or magnetic complexity, but still holds the potential
for isolated flare activity.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0953UT on
22 Jul.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
22/0920UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 1113 3345
Darwin 10 2113 3335
Townsville 11 1113 4335
Learmonth 12 1003 4346
Culgoora 9 1013 3335
Canberra 12 1033 3345
Hobart 9 1003 3335
Casey(Ant) 15 1213 3356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2121 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 22 active
24 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Active over the last 24
hours with the arrival of the CME observed on 20 July. Unsettled
to Active conditions are expected over the next 2 days with isolated
periods of Minor Storm levels possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations of HF conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours, especially at mid and high latitudes,
with conditions returning to normal on day two and three of this
outlook.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 75% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Jul 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected undergo isolated minor degradation
periods in the southern regions of AUS/NZ over the next 24 hours,
and return to normal on day two and three of this outlook.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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