[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 22 09:54:07 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours with only
C-Class events recorded. The largest of these being a C8.9 originating
from region 652 at 0500UT. Region 649 was also the source of
a C6.6 class event at 0030UT. A strong radio noise storm has
been observed on the Culgoora spectrograph from local dawn to
present. Solar wind speed gradually declined from 550km/s to
400km/s over the UT day. The north-south component of the inter
planetary magnetic field (Bz) was mainly positive from 0000UT
to 1100UT upon which it has remained close to nuetral up to the
time of this report. The solar wind stream is expected to strengthen
from late on 22 July or early on 23 July following 20thJuly's
CME. Region 649 showed further decay in size and region 652 has
shown a slight increase in its spot size, particularly in its
trailer component. Region 652 still holds the potential for major
flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 2220 0101
Darwin 1 1110 0102
Townsville 2 1110 0111
Learmonth 2 1210 0102
Culgoora 2 2120 0101
Canberra 4 -320 0101
Hobart 1 1110 0001
Casey(Ant) 6 3330 0101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUL :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1232 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
23 Jul 18 active
24 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels over the next 24hrs with some possibility
of isolated active periods. The CME observed on 20 July is expected
to enhance the geomagnetic activity late on 22 July or early
on 23 July to active levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during
the next 24 hours, with minor/moderate degradations possible
at times at mid and high latitudes. Moderate degradations may
be observed at mid and high latitudes on 22nd 23rd July due to
an expected enhancement in the geomagnetic activity on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 19 July
and is current for interval 20-22 July (SWFs) . HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal in Aus/NZ regions during
the next 24 hours, with some possibility of isolated minor degradation
periods in the southern regions after this period. Minor to moderate
degradations are possible on day two and three of this forecast,
especially in the Southern Aus/NZ region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list