[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 18 09:54:03 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/1F 0757UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M2/1N 1651UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Region 649(S10E12)
continued to be the largest and the most active region on
the solar disk and produced M and X-flares - the largest
being an X1.0 at 0757UT. Region 652(N05E70) also produced
two C-class flares. No earthward directed CME was observed.
Solar wind speed first gradually increased from 450 to 560 km/s
(approx.) by 1100 UT and then gradually decreased to 450 km/s
by the time of this report. The north-south component of the
inter planetary magnetic field (Bz) remained negative
(approx. -16nT) for the first two hours of the day and then
remained mostly slightly negative during the rest of the
day. Region 649 holds potential for major flare activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to active,
isolated minor storm conditions observed.
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 4333 2013
Darwin 9 3332 2023
Townsville 15 4443 2013
Learmonth 11 4332 2022
Culgoora 10 3333 2012
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 11 3333 3112
Casey(Ant) 12 4432 1113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 2022 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
19 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
20 Jul 8 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity rose to active and isolated
minor storm conditions today as per the expectations but
declined to mostly unsettled and then quiet levels within a
few hours. The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually
subside during the next three days. However, due to the
presence of a very active region on the solar disk, which is
nearly in a geoeffective position now, strong CME/flare
activities may be observed. This may strengthen the solar
wind stream and increase geomagnetic activity within the next
few days beyond the otherwise expected levels. In that case
the forescast may need to be changed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next three days, with isolated minor degradations
possible at times at mid and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% with periods of strong degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 58 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
19 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
20 Jul 64 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 16 July
and is current for interval 17-19 July (SWFs) . HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal in Aus/NZ regions during
the next three days with some possibility of isolated minor
degradation periods in the southern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 52700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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