[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 17 09:57:41 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/-- 0206UT confirmed all E. Asia/Aust.
X1/1F 1041UT probable all European
X3/3B 1355UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Three X-class flares
(X1.3/0206UT, X1.1/1041UT and X3.6/1355UT) were recorded from
region 649(S10E25). No significant radio bursts or CME activities
were associated to the first two flares. A weak TypeII radio
burst was associated to the X3.6 flare. Solar wind speed first
gradually decreased from 440 to 370 km/s (approximately) by 2100
UT and then rapidly increased due to the arrival of a weak shock
at 2116UT. The solar wind speed is currently approximately 450
km/s. The north-south component of the inter planetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained mostly near the normal value with minor
North/South fluctuations until 1500UT and then stayed moderately
southwards until 2100UT. Soon after this Bz went further south
on the arrival of a weak shock and is currently at -17nT (approx.).
Region 649 is continuing to maintain its complexity and holds
potential for major flare activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 2111 1123
Darwin 6 3221 1123
Townsville 4 2111 1122
Learmonth 4 2111 1223
Culgoora 4 1121 1123
Canberra 2 1110 0112
Hobart 2 1110 0113
Casey(Ant) 4 2221 1113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2111 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
18 Jul 14 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
19 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: A weak shock has been observed at 2116UT/16 July.
The increasing solar wind speed and sustained periods of
Bz staying south indicate the possibility of increased
geomagnetic activity on 17 July. Mostly unsettled to active
levels of geomagnetic activity with possibility of minor
storm periods may be expected on 17 July. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually subside thereafter. However,
due to the presence of a very active region on the solar disk,
which is nearly in a geoeffective position now, strong CME/flare
activities may be observed. This may strengthen the solar wind
stream and increase geomagnetic activity within the next few
days beyond the otherwise expected levels. In that case the
forescast may need to be changed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may
be observed on 17 July due to a possible increase in
geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 40% with periods of significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 44 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Jul 58 near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values/enhanced
5 to 10%. COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradation in HF
conditions and depressions in MUFs may be observed at times
on 17 July, particulary in the Southern Aus/NZ regions due
to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 66700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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