[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 16 09:33:10 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/-- 0141UT confirmed all E. Asia/Aust.
X1/-- 1824UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Two X-class
flares (X1.8/0141UT and X1.6/1824UT) were recorded from
region 649(S10E39). No significant radio bursts or CME
activities seem to be associated to these flares. Solar
wind speed first gradually decreased from 460 to 420 km/s
(approximately) by 2100UT and then increased to 440 km/s
(approx.) during the last few hours. The north-south
component of the inter planetary magnetic field (Bz)
remained mostly near the normal value until 1000UT and
then stayed slightly northwards until 1600UT. Bz then
turned southwards and remained slightly negative until
2200UT. Bz is currently slightly positive. Region 649
holds potential for major flare activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 2110 0122
Darwin 3 2111 0122
Townsville 3 2111 0122
Learmonth 2 2100 0122
Culgoora 3 2110 0122
Canberra 2 -200 0022
Hobart 1 1000 0111
Casey(Ant) 4 2221 0122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUL :
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2332 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
17 Jul 8 Quiet
18 Jul 8 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 14 July
and is current for interval 15-16 July. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for 16 July. However, a
possible glancing blow from a CME may cause a rise in the
geomagnetic activity to active levels on 16 July. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions,
particularly on mid and high latitudes, may be observed
on 16 July due to a possible increase in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 45% with periods of
significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
17 Jul 58 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
18 Jul 58 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on
14 July and is current for interval 15-16 July. Minor to
mild degradation in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs
may be observed at times on 16 July, particulary in the
Southern Aus/NZ regions due to a possible rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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