[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 19 09:56:09 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/1F 17/2131UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1/-- 17/2308UT possible lower West Pacific
M2/1F 0035UT possible lower West Pacific
M1/SF 0257UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1/1F 1713UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Region 649(S10W01)
produced three M-class and several C-class flares - the
largest being an M2.0 at 0035UT. Region 652(N05E57) also
produced C-class activity. Lasco imagery indicates possibility
of association of some very faint CMEs in association with
some of the flares. These CMEs may cause some strengthening
in the solar wind stream on 20 or 21 July. Solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 480 to 380 km/s (approx.) during the
UT day. The north-south component of the inter planetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained slightly negative for the first nine hours
of the day, then remained slightly positive until approximately
1500UT and again remained mostly slightly negative during the
rest of the day. Region 649 and 652 hold potential for major
flare activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 2222 0122
Darwin 4 2222 0112
Townsville 5 2222 0122
Learmonth 4 2122 0122
Culgoora 4 1222 0121
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 3 1111 ----
Casey(Ant) 11 32-- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 24 6453 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
20 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
21 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next three
days with possibility of isolated active periods on the second
and third day of the period. However, due to the presence of
two active regions on the solar disk, strong CME/flare activities
may be observed. These possible activities may have potential
to strengthen the solar wind stream and increase geomagnetic
activity within the next few days beyond the otherwise expected
levels. In that case the forescast may need to be changed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next three days, with isolated minor degradations
possible at times at mid and high latitudes on the second and
third days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 50% with periods of significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 68 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 10 to
25%.
20 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
21 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 16
July and is current for interval 17-19 July (SWFs) . HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in Aus/NZ
regions during the next three days with some possibility
of isolated minor degradation periods in the southern
regions on the second and third days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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