[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 12 09:51:28 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed in the past 24 
hours. The possibility of M-class flare activity is expected 
to increase as a bright new region rotates onto the visible disk 
from behind the south-east limb. Solar wind parameters indicate 
the Earth is presently under the infulence of an unexpected high 
speed coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds have 
increased from 300 km/s up to approximately 550 km/s over the 
past 24 hours. The IMF had sustained southward periods over the 
past 24 hours, reaching values of around -10nT. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2113 3234
      Darwin              11   3223 3234
      Townsville           9   3123 3223
      Learmonth            9   2123 3233
      Culgoora             8   2113 3134
      Canberra             8   2113 3134
      Hobart               5   1112 3124
      Casey(Ant)           7   2112 3224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1232 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul    16    Mostly unsettled with the chance of active and 
                isolated minor storm periods. 
13 Jul    12    Unsettled 
14 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: An unexpected high speed coronal hole solar wind stream 
is expected to result in mildly increased geomagnetic activity 
for the next two days. Active and isolated minor storm periods 
are possible for 12 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times 
for 12 July as the result of mildly increased geomagnetic activity. 
Depressions of 10-15% are possible for mid-high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jul    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul    30    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times 
for 12 July as the result of mildly increased geomagnetic activity. 
Depressions of 10-15% are possible for southern regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    56500 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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