[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 13 09:57:55 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0808UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Further M-class flare activity is possible as an active
region rotates onto the visible disk from the south-east limb.
A CME was observed in association with the M1-flare from the
SE limb at 0808UT on 12 July, however, the CME does not appear
to be Earthward directed. Solar wind speeds have remained mildly
elevated over the past 24 hours with speeds around 500 km/s.
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated for
the next 24 hours.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
12/1055UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 3221 2123
Darwin 9 3331 2123
Townsville 8 4221 2123
Learmonth 8 3231 2123
Culgoora 7 3221 2123
Canberra 6 3220 2123
Hobart 6 3220 2123
Casey(Ant) 10 4331 2113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUL :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 3213 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 15 Mostly unsettled with the chance of active and
isolated minor storm periods.
14 Jul 12 Unsettled
15 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Recent CME activity is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated for
the next 24 hours. Active and isolated minor storm periods are
possible for 13 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times
for 13 July as the result of mildly increased geomagnetic activity.
Depressions of 10-15% are possible for mid-high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 5-15% at times to mostly near predicted
monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 35 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times
for 13 July as the result of mildly increased geomagnetic activity.
Depressions of 10-15% are possible for southern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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