[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             110/60             115/66
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed in the past 24 
hours. The possibility of M-class flare activity is expected 
to increase as a bright new region rotates onto the visible disk 
from behind the south-east limb. Solar wind speeds have remained 
low during the past 24 hours, averaging around 300 km/s. The 
IMF had sustained southward periods, however, the magnitude only 
reached around -6 nT. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   0211 0212
      Darwin               5   1221 1222
      Townsville           3   0211 0211
      Learmonth            3   0211 1212
      Culgoora             4   1221 0212
      Canberra             3   0211 0212
      Hobart               2   0211 0202
      Casey(Ant)           5   0321 0211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1220 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
12 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
13 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
COMMENT: Recent CME activity is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected to continue for the next 
few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Slight depressions observed at times during local day 
at low latitudes, otherwise HF conditions have been mostly normal. 
Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days, with 
slight depressions possible at times during local day at low 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed 5-10% at times during local day otherwise
      mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
12 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight depressions observed at times during local day 
at low latitudes, otherwise HF conditions have been mostly normal. 
Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days, with 
slight depressions possible at times during local day for northern 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    40300 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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