[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34             100/48             110/60
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed in the past 24 
hours. Solar wind speeds have remained low during the past 24 
hours, ranging from between 300 km/s to 350 km/s. A CME observed 
in LASCO imagery around 03UT on 9 July appears to have originated 
from behind the NE limb and is not expected to be geoeffective. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 0010
      Darwin               2   2210 0011
      Townsville           1   1110 0011
      Learmonth            1   1110 0010
      Culgoora             1   1110 0010
      Canberra             1   1110 0011
      Hobart               1   1110 0000
      Casey(Ant)           2   1220 0010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5   2101 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
11 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
12 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
COMMENT: Recent CME activity is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected to continue for the next 
few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times during local day 
at low latitudes, otherwise HF conditions have been mostly normal. 
Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days, with 
mild depressions possible at times during local day at low latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jul    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed 5-15% at times during local day
      to near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
12 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times during local day 
at low latitudes, otherwise HF conditions have been mostly normal. 
Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days, with 
mild depressions possible at times during local day for northern 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    19800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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