[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34             100/48
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed in the past 24 
hours. Solar wind speeds have remained low during the past 24 
hours, slowly decreasing from 380 km/s down to approximately 
300 km/s. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 634 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 9 Jul. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       0   0000 0001
      Darwin               0   0100 0102
      Townsville           0   0000 0002
      Learmonth            0   0100 0001
      Culgoora             0   1000 0001
      Canberra             0   0000 0000
      Hobart               0   0000 0000
      Casey(Ant)           0   1000 0100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JUL : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1211 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
10 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
11 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods 
COMMENT: CME activity observed during 5-6 July does not appear 
to be Earthward directed and is therefore not expected to be 
geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to continue 
for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times during local day 
at low latitudes, otherwise HF conditions have been mostly normal. 
Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed 5-15% at times to near predicted
      monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times during local day 
at low latitudes, otherwise HF conditions have been mostly normal. 
Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    31100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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