[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 8 09:46:43 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed in the past 24
hours. A fast full halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery at
05/2316. This was probably a backside event, and is the likely
origin of the Type II sweep observed yesterday on the Culgoora
Radiospectrograph. A narrow northwest directed CME was observed
in LASCO imagery at 06/1418, and a partial halo on the east limb
at 06/2042. These also are probably backside events. Frontside
solar activity is expected to remain low. The recent CME events
indicate areas of significant activity at present on the backside
solar disk.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 634 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 9 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 1111 1001
Darwin 2 1111 1012
Townsville 2 1111 1002
Learmonth 2 1110 1---
Culgoora 2 1111 1002
Canberra 1 0110 1001
Hobart 0 0100 1000
Casey(Ant) 3 1221 1010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2322 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
09 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
10 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
COMMENT: CME activity observed during the past 2 days does not
appear to be Earthward directed and is therefore not expected
to be geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to continue
for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times during local day
at low latitudes, otherwise HF conditions have been mostly normal.
Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 30 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times during local day
at low latitudes, otherwise HF conditions have been mostly normal.
Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: A3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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