[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 7 09:51:46 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed in the past 24
hours. A fast full halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery at
05/2316. This was probably a backside event, and is the likely
origin of the Type II sweep observed yesterday on the Culgoora
Radiospectrograph. A narrow northwest directed CME was observed
in LASCO imagery at 06/1418, and a partial halo on the east limb
at 06/2042. These also are probably backside events. Frontside
solar activity is expected to remain low. The recent CME events
indicate areas of significant activity at present on the backside
solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 1222 1002
Darwin 5 2222 1112
Townsville 4 2222 1012
Learmonth 5 122- ----
Culgoora 3 1222 0002
Canberra 6 1422 0000
Hobart 3 1212 1001
Casey(Ant) 7 2332 1102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2201 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 10 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
08 Jul 10 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
09 Jul 8 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were predominantly quiet, with
isolated unsettled periods observed at some stations. Solar wind
speed remains steady at around 420 km/s. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly northward,
with brief minor southward excursions. Similar conditions are
expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed at low latitudes.
Extended periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes over
the UT day. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next
three days at mid latitudes. Variable conditions possible at
low and high latitudes, with extended periods of disturbance
possible at high latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Generally enhanced over the UT day, with extended
local disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable mild depressions observed equatorial region,
recovering around local dawn. Mild evening spread-F observed
S Aus/NZ regions. Extended localised periods of spread-F and
sporadic-E conditions observed Antarctic regions. Mostly normal
HF conditions expected at mid latitudes for the next few days,
with variable conditions possible at low and high latitudes.
Possible evening spread-F conditions S Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: A3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 96200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list