[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              78/17              80/20
COMMENT: Only minor flare activity observed in the past 24 hours, 
mainly from region 639. A weak Type II radio sweep was observed 
on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph at 2233UT. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 1122
      Darwin               4   2111 1122
      Townsville           4   1211 1122
      Learmonth            3   2101 1121
      Culgoora             3   1101 1122
      Canberra             3   1101 1121
      Hobart               2   1101 1112
      Casey(Ant)           6   3221 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2222 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul    12    Unsettled 
07 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were predominantly quiet, with 
isolated unsettled periods observed at high latitudes only. Solar 
wind speed remains steady at around 420 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has shown minor to moderate 
polarity fluctuations about neutral. An equatorial coronal hole 
may produce slightly elevated geomagnetic conditions over the 
next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Extended periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes 
over the UT day. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the 
next three days at low to mid latitudes. Periods of disturbance 
possible at high latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jul    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with extended periods of
      disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable overnight enhancements observed equatorial 
region, normalising before local dawn. Extended periods of spread-F 
and disturbance observed Antarctic region. Mostly normal HF conditions 
expected at low to mid latitudes for the next few days, with 
variable conditions possible at low and high latitudes. Possible 
evening spread-F conditions S Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal)
       X-ray background: A3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    71800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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