[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 5 09:53:43 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Only minor B-class flare activity and isolated Type
III radio sweep activity was observed over the past 24 hours.
Most activity is likely to be from newly numbered region 641,
near the east limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 1113 0001
Darwin 3 1112 0112
Townsville 5 1223 1101
Learmonth 3 2112 0101
Culgoora 3 1113 0001
Canberra 4 1213 1001
Hobart 3 1113 1000
Casey(Ant) 4 2222 0011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUL :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 2123 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 8 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
06 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
07 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were predominantly quiet, with
isolated unsettled periods observed at some stations. Solar wind
speed declined steadily over the UT day, trending slightly upward
late in the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has remained mostly slightly northward, with brief minor
southward fluctuations. Conditions should remain mostly quiet
on day one. An equatorial coronal hole now at central solar meridian
may produce slightly elevated conditions on days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed at low latitudes, recovering
around local dawn. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the
next three days. Isolated periods of disturbance possible at
high latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values local day.
Variable overnight depressions, tending to
enhanced around local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values with isolated
local disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions observed equatorial region,
recovering around local dawn. Mild evening spread-F observed
S Aus/Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions expected
for the next few days, with variable conditions possible at low
and high latitudes. Possible evening spread-F conditions S Aus/NZ
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: A3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 81600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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