[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed unexpectedly declined from 600 to 400 
km/sec over the UT day. Elevated wind speeds remain expected 
due to a coronal hole. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was southward 5nT 9-20UT. Returning region 536 
appears to be a single spot with relatively low flare potenetial. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 2123
      Darwin               5   2222 2113
      Townsville           5   2222 2113
      Learmonth            6   2122 3012
      Culgoora             5   2222 2113
      Canberra             6   2222 2123
      Hobart               8   2222 223-
      Casey(Ant)          12   3-43 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JAN : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            52   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            96   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              98   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             19   5443 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan    18    Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period. 
31 Jan    18    Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period. 
01 Feb    18    Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 29 January and 
is current for interval 30 January to 1 February. Mild to moderately 
increased geomagnetic activity expected next few days, due to 
coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF communications quality 
expected at mid to high latitudes due to anticpated activity 
induced by solar coronal hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jan    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
31 Jan    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Feb    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depression observed in Australian region after 
local dawn this morning. In general, mild to moderate depressions 
may be experienced in southern Aus/NZ regions over next few days 
due to anticipated moderate activity associated with coronal 
hole high wind stream entry. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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