[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar region 536 is returning to the solar south-east 
limb. This region though reasonably large produced no solar flares 
on its previous transit. A coronal hole is visible near solar 
central meridian. It appears that the Earth has entered the wind 
stream from this hole early in the UT day on 28 Jan. Moderately 
elevated solar wind speeds are expected from this hole over coming 
days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   4333 4322
      Darwin              14   4323 3323
      Townsville          17   4333 4322
      Learmonth           21   5333 4331
      Culgoora            13   4323 3222
      Canberra            17   4333 4322
      Hobart              17   4333 4322
      Casey(Ant)          27   6--4 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            96   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             112   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   3423 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan    18    Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period. 
30 Jan    18    Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period. 
31 Jan    18    Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period. 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence suggests that active periods can be 
expected over coming days. The recuurent pattern from this coronal 
hole may be showing signs of weakening. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF communications quality 
expected at mid to high latitudes due to anticpated activity 
induced by solar coronal hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jan    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
30 Jan    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
31 Jan    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected today. Mild to 
moderate depressions may be experienced in southern Aus/NZ regions 
over next few days due to anticipated moderate activity associated 
with coronal hole high wind stream entry. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    9.7 p/cc  Temp:    94400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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