[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 28 10:31:52 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 110/60
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Some
east limb brightening has been observed over the last two days.
Old active region 536 is due to return tomorrow at latitude S12.
This will be followed a few days later by old region 537 at latitude
N04. Region 536 produced no major flares on last rotation, but
had large penumbral coverage and was magnetically complex and
variable. Region 537 produced a number of M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 15 3333 3423
Darwin 14 3233 3424
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 16 3232 3523
Culgoora 11 23-- ---4
Canberra 11 2233 3323
Hobart 12 2243 2323
Casey(Ant) 15 34-3 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JAN :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 17 3143 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 20 active
29 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: A minor solar wind transient was observed on the ACE
satellite in the first half of the UT day. The observed phase
change in solar wind magnetic polarity could indicate either
a solar sector boundary crossing, or the onset of the anticipated
positive polarity coronal hole wind stream. IMF Bz fluctuations
subsided and the Bz polarity settled to a near-neutral value
following the transient. Expect unsettled to active geomagnetic
conditions today, declining to mostly unsettled tomorrow with
the chance of isolated active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Low to mid latitudes recovered to mostly normal conditions
yesterday, with brief overnight depressions observed at low latitudes.
High latitudes were slightly depressed first half of the UT day,
recovering to normal in the second half. Expect mostly normal
conditions today, with the possibility of high latitude disturbances
next two days due to the anticipated mild coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 55 near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 40 Depressed 5-15% S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
30 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Persistent and occasionally intense sporadic-E conditions
observed S Aus/NZ regions during local day. General recovery
in HF conditions observed early in the UT day at low to mid latitudes,
but brief overnight depressions at low latitudes. High latitudes
showed overnight recovery to near-normal conditions. Expect mostly
normal HF conditions today at low to mid latitudes, with a possibility
of disturbances at high latitudes due to the anticipated mild
coronal hole wind stream. Disturbances may spread to lower latitudes
on day two, followed by general recovery on day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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