[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 31 09:13:57 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 400 to 600-700km/sec
over the uT day, indicating the Earth has entered a coronal hole
wind stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated 03-11UT as the Earth entered the stream.
The Bz is currently mildly southward. A bright emission is visible
on US SEC SXI imagery on the north-east limb of the Sun. This may
possibly be the return of old region 537 which produced several
M class flares on its previous transit. However, 537's lattude
on its previous rotation was about 4-5 degress north, whilst
this bright emission appears to be higher, about 13-16 degrees
north, so it may not be the same region. 27 day recurrence predicts
that 537 is expected to rotate onto the disk around 02 Feb. An
increase in solar flux levels and activity may occur after this
date.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 16 2344 3323
Darwin 14 2334 3322
Townsville 16 2344 3322
Learmonth 14 2234 3333
Culgoora 13 2344 2222
Canberra 16 2344 3322
Hobart 16 2344 3324
Casey(Ant) 22 4--5 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1224 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 18 Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period.
01 Feb 18 Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period.
02 Feb 18 Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 29 January and
is current for interval 30 January to 1 February. Mild to moderately
increased geomagnetic activity expected next few days, due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
01 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF communications quality
expected at mid to high latitudes due to anticpated activity
induced by solar coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
brielfy 15% depressed after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Sporadic E observed at Macquarie Island 10-17UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions expected for southern Aus/NZ
regions over next few days, particularly after local dawn, due
to anticipated moderate activity associated with coronal hole
high wind stream entry.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: A7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 71100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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