[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 25 10:25:13 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Most 
active solar regions have shown continuing decay in penumbral 
coverage and magnetic complexity. A north-polar coronal hole 
with a small equatorial extension is now moving into geoeffective 
position. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3223
      Darwin              11   -332 3223
      Townsville          12   3333 3223
      Learmonth           12   3332 3323
      Culgoora            11   2333 3222
      Canberra            13   3333 3323
      Hobart              12   3233 3322
      Casey(Ant)          17   34-4 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JAN : 
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            69   (Active)
      Canberra            97   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             38   4545 5553     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan    12    Unsettled 
26 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day, 
after the elevated levels due to recent shock events. Early in 
the UT day, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
switched to northward polarity, after an extended period of southward 
polarity in preceding days. Geomagnetic activity subsequently 
declined to mostly quiet levels, with isolated active to minor 
storm periods at high latitudes only. A minor disturbance in 
the solar wind was observed on the ACE satellite at 24/0600. 
This may have been related to the second filament eruption observed 
on Jan 21. Expect continuing quiet to unsettled levels today, 
with the possibility of a brief return to active conditions 
on day three due to a favourably positioned small coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: General improvement in HF propagation observed over 
the UT day. Significant depressions observed at some mid-latitude 
sites after local dawn today. These persist at the time of report 
issue. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan    40    Depressed 10-20% after local dawn at mid latitudes, 
                otherwise near predicted monthly values. 
26 Jan    55    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Jan    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed at some mid latitude 
sites after local dawn today. Expect generally improving HF conditions 
over the UT day. Possible further disturbance at high latitudes 
on day 3 due to a mild coronal hole wind stream effect. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 538 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    71700 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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