[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 24 10:49:04 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION:* YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Most
active solar regions have shown continuing decay in penumbral
coverage and magnetic complexity. A north-polar coronal hole
with a small equatorial extension is now moving into geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 31 2345 4554
Darwin 39 2555 4555
Townsville 29 3345 4545
Learmonth 29 2335 4554
Culgoora 29 2345 3554
Canberra 31 2345 4554
Hobart 31 2345 4554
Casey(Ant) 20 3444 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JAN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 62 5567 7454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 20 active
25 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Following the shock arrival observed early on Jan 22,
solar wind parameters remain elevated. The north-south component
of the IMF was steady at about -5nT over most of the UT day,
resulting in extended periods of active to minor storm conditions
at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity trended down at low to
mid latitudes during the early part of the UT day. At 23/1400UT
there was a step increase observed in solar wind velocity on
the ACE satellite, accompanied by increases in solar wind density
and temperature, indicating a possible glancing blow from the
CME observed early in the UT day Jan 21. This event followed
a filament eruption in the south eastern solar quadrant. IMF
Bz fluctuations then increased in amplitude for some hours, and
geomagnetic activity increased to periods of active to minor
storm levels, particularly at mid to low latitudes. Activity
remains at these levels at the time of report issue. Expect elevated
geomagnetic activity again today, gradually declining over the
UT day to unsettled levels. There is a possibility of a further
mild shock in the solar wind today from the second filament eruption
of Jan 21. Also possible onset of a mild coronal hole winsdstream
on day 2.
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1455UT on 23 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Poor Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Poor-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
25 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed at all latitudes over
most of the UT day. Expect gradually improving HF conditions
today. Signs of recovery have been observed after local dawn
today, most strongly at mid latitudes. There is a slight possibility
of a further mild shock arrival today, with associated geomagnetic
and HF communications disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night and
after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 35 Depressed 10-20% at low and high latitudes, recovering
to near predicted monthly values at mid latitudes.
25 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed at all latitudes throughout
the UT day. Signs of recovery after local dawn today, especially
at mid latitudes. Expect gradually improving HF conditions today
and on day 2. However, there is a slight possibility of further
HF disturbance today pending arrival of another mild shock in
the solar wind. Possible further disturbance at high latitudes
on day 3 due to a mild coronal hole wind stream effect.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 636 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 147000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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