[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 23 10:56:15 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Active
region 540 continues to decline in penumbral coverage, but maintains
moderate magnetic complexity, and the potential for moderate
flare activity. The CME observed early in the UT day Jan 21 had
an angular extent of about 90 degrees. It was associated with
a filament eruption in the south-eastern quadrant. A second,
larger filament eruption occurred late in the UT day Jan 21 in
the north-western quadrant, producing a significant CME in that
direction. Angular extent of the first CME, and region of origin
of the second CME, suggest some possibility of a geoeffective
shock from either event. Shock arrival would probobly occur on
Jan 24.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0104UT on 22
Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Active to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 51 5456 6453
Darwin 48 5446 6454
Townsville 48 5446 645-
Learmonth 48 5446 645-
Culgoora 46 4456 635-
Canberra 48 4456 645-
Hobart 51 5556 6444
Casey(Ant) 51 66-6 4342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JAN :
Townsville 17 (Quiet)
Learmonth 54 (Unsettled)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 105 (Major storm)
Hobart 135 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 65
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 2243 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 25 active
24 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 21 January and
is current for interval 21-23 January. A strong shock was observed
on the ACE satellite at about 0115UT, with solar wind speed rising
from about 450 to 700 km/s. Moderate geomagnetic disturbance
was observed on the IPS magnetometer network shortly thereafter.
Initially, the IMF Bz component showed moderate fluctuations
but maintained a mostly northward polarity, resulting in minor
storm levels at high latitudes and active conditions at other
locations. Between 08 and 10 UT, there was a drop in solar wind
density and temperature, followed by a strong Bz polarity reversal,
resulting in major storm periods lasting for several hours at
all latitudes. By 13 UT, Bz had settled to a mild southerly bias,
with solar wind speed slowly declining from 650 to 450 km/s at
the time of report issue. Geomagnetic conditions have remained
at active to minor storm levels at all latitudes. Geomagnetic
activity should gradually decline over the UT day today, with
minor storm periods possible at high latitudes. There is a slight
possibility of another shock arrival on Jan 24 due to recent
solar filament eruptions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal-poor Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant depressions are expected at times on 23
January as the result of elevated geomagnetic activity following
the solar wind shock arrival on Jan 22. Significant depressions
have been observed at mid to high latitudes after local dawn
today. There is a slight possibility of a further shock arrival
on Jan 24.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 21 January
and is current for interval 21-23 January. Persistent and intense
sporadic-E observed at times at high latitudes. Increased absorption
observed S. Ocean/Antarctic regions. Significant depressions
are expected at times on 23 January as the result of elevated
geomagnetic activity levels. Current geomagnetic activity is
a consequence of recent solar flare activity. Another shock arrival
is possible after Jan 23, due to recent solar filament erutions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 87800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list