[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 21 10:52:23 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:**RED**   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M6/2N    0743UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Further M-class flare activity is possible from solar 
region 540. Solar wind speeds have declined to approximately 
500 km/s over the past 24 hours and are expected to again increase 
with the arrival of anticipated CME events. A glancing blow from 
the CME associated with the M5-flare observed on 17 January is 
still possible for 21 January. A direct impact from the CME observed 
in association with the C8-flare on 19 January is expected on 
22 January. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3332 4323
      Darwin              13   3322 432-
      Townsville          11   2332 3323
      Learmonth           16   3323 4423
      Culgoora            10   2322 3322
      Canberra            13   2332 4322
      Hobart              15   2432 4322
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JAN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            72   (Active)
      Hobart              70   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             17   3234 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan    25    Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
22 Jan    50    Mostly active to minor storm with major storm 
                periods possible. 
23 Jan    25    Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 20 January and 
is current for interval 20-21 January. Solar wind speeds have 
declined to approximately 500 km/s over the past 24 hours resulting 
in mostly unsettled to active levels. Solar wind speeds are again 
expected to increase for the next few days with the arrival of 
anticipated CME events. A glancing blow from the CME associated 
with the M5-flare observed on 17 January is still possible for 
21 January with active to minor storm periods possible. A direct 
impact from the CME observed in association with the C8-flare 
on 19 January is expected on 22 January with minor to major storm 
periods possible. Minor storm periods may persist into 23 January. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
22 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor     
23 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times for 21 January 
as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Significant depressions are expected at times for 22-23 January 
as the result of anticipated significant geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jan    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 10-20% at times during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 Jan    10    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Jan    20    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times for 21 January 
as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Significant depressions are expected at times for 22-23 January 
as the result of anticipated significant geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 605 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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