[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 18 11:03:52 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/-- 1750UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 110/60
COMMENT: The coronal hole solar wind stream appears to be abating
with wind speeds slowly declining over the past 24 hours to 550
km/s. Further M-class flare activity is possible from solar region
540.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 16 3334 3333
Darwin 11 3223 3233
Townsville 14 2334 3233
Learmonth 14 3224 3333
Culgoora 14 2334 3233
Canberra 18 3334 3343
Hobart 18 3334 3343
Casey(Ant) 22 4--4 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JAN :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 82 (Minor storm)
Canberra 109 (Major storm)
Hobart 131 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 26 4435 4454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
19 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled
20 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 13 January and
is current for interval 16-18 January. The coronal hole solar
wind stream is abating and geomagnetic activity levels are expected
to decline over the next two days. Further elevated geomagnetic
activity is possible on 20 January as the result of the M5-flare
observed on 18 January, however, analysis of LASCO imagery is
unavailable at present and the geoeffectiveness of the flare
is unclear.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times during 17 January.
Mostly normal conditions with slight depressions at times are
expected for 18-19 January with mild depressions again possible
for 20 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
5-15% at times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 45 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 16 January
and is current for interval 16-18 January. Mild depressions were
observed at times during 17 January. Mostly normal conditions
with slight depressions at times are expected for 18-19 January
with mild depressions again possible for 20 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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