[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters suggest the Earth is currently 
under the influence of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 16 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3323 3344
      Darwin              14   3322 3344
      Townsville          14   3223 3344
      Learmonth           22   3323 4454
      Culgoora            13   2223 3344
      Canberra            17   3323 4344
      Hobart              17   3323 4344
      Casey(Ant)          23   ---- 3444
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JAN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            45   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            81   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   2322 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan    20    Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
18 Jan    20    Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
19 Jan    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 13 January and 
is current for interval 16-18 January. Solar wind parameters 
suggest the Earth is currently under the influence of the anticipated 
coronal hole solar wind stream which is expected to produce mildly 
elevated geomagnetic activity for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Poor-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
18 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Significant depressions were observed during local day 
for mid-high latitudes for 16 January. Mild depressions are again 
expected at times for mid-high latitudes for 17-18 January due 
to mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jan    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      10-20% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan    40    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Jan    45    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Jan    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 16 January 
and is current for interval 16-18 January. Significant depressions 
were observed during local day for southern regions for 16 January. 
Mild depressions are again expected at times for southern regions 
for 17-18 January due to mildly elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 503 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   162000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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