[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 16 11:03:25 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have ranged between 400 to 550km/s
over the past 24 hours, with the IMF reaching values of -10nT
at times. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated over
the next few days due to a coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective
position. There is the small chance of isolated M-class flares
from region 540.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 15 2222 4444
Darwin 12 2222 3434
Townsville 11 2122 3434
Learmonth 15 2222 4444
Culgoora 12 2222 3434
Canberra 15 2222 4444
Hobart 16 2322 4444
Casey(Ant) 32 4--- 5444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 3323 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
17 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
18 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 13 January and
is current for interval 16-18 January. Mildly elevated geomagnetic
conditions were observed for 16 January as the result of periods
of mildly southward IMF. A coronal hole is expected to produce
active and isolated minor storm periods for 16-18 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions have been observed since local dawn
for mid-high latitudes, otherwise HF conditions were normal to
slightly depressed for 15 January. Mild depressions are again
expected at times for mid-high latitudes for 16-18 January due
to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
15% at times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
15% at times,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
15% at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 25 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 35 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 45 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 13 January
and is current for interval 17-18 January. Mild depressions have
been observed since local dawn for mid-high latitudes, otherwise
HF conditions were normal to slightly depressed for 15 January.
Mild depressions are again expected at times for mid-high latitudes
for 16-18 January due to anticipated Elevated geomagnetic activity
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 229000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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