[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*    ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have declined slowly during the past 
24 hours, but still remain slightly elevated. Solar wind speeds 
are expected to again increase by 16 January due to a coronal 
hole rotating into a geoeffective position. There is the small 
chance of isolated M-class flares from region 537. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4223 3232
      Darwin              10   3222 3232
      Townsville          14   4233 3233
      Learmonth           16   5223 3233
      Culgoora            10   3222 3232
      Canberra            13   4222 3332
      Hobart              15   4222 4332
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JAN : 
      Townsville          34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            76   (Active)
      Canberra           107   (Major storm)
      Hobart             103   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18   3332 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
                periods. 
16 Jan    20    Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
17 Jan    20    Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 13 January and 
is current for interval 16-18 January. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions expected for 15 January. A coronal hole is expected 
to produce active and isolated minor storm periods for 16-18 
Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Conditions are expected to be mostly normal for 15 January 
with mildly degraded conditions possible at times for mid-high 
latitudes for 16-18 January. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jan    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jan    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
17 Jan    40    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 13 January 
and is current for interval 17-18 January. Conditions are expected 
to be mostly normal for 15 January with mildly degraded conditions 
possible at times for mid-high latitudes for 16-18 January. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 575 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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