[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 14 09:46:38 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG: GREEN ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was steady at around 450 to 500km/sec
until around 09 UT. Afterwhich solar wind speed rapidly and unexpectedly
increased to 600km/sec and is currently moderately elevated at
around 570km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated southward by up to 10nT at the time
of the raipd increase in wind speed. It currently has a mildly
northward orientation. The solar origin of this solar wind disturbance
is unknown. No significant flares were again observed over past
24 hours. The two on disk solar regions of interst, numbered
536 and 537, only managed to produce low C class events. Region
536 is now nearing the western solar limb. New region 540 has
rotated onto the solar disk just south of the solar equator.
Region 540 appears to have a large leader spot with possible
faint small trailer spots. Analysis difficult due to viewing
angle near limb. Another solar region is expected to rotate onto
the solar disk just north of the solar disk in about 1 days time.
A "J" shaped coronal hole is just at solar central meridian and
the Earth expected to enter the wind stream from this hole around
late 16 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 16 3223 4434
Darwin 16 2223 4444
Townsville 21 3-23 5434
Learmonth 19 2223 5444
Culgoora 15 2223 4434
Canberra 15 3222 4434
Hobart 17 3332 4433
Casey(Ant) 22 4--4 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JAN :
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10 2212 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 7 Quiet
16 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 13 January and
is current for interval 16-18 January. Unexpected active periods
local nigt hours, due to fluctuation in solar wind conditions.
Cause unknown. Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected next two
days. A coronal hole is expected to produce active periods 16-18
Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may have been experienced
second half of UT day at mid to high latitudes. Generally good
HF conditions expected today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values local day.
Depressed 15% local night hours.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
15% depressed to near predicted monthly values
over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 55 near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 13 January
and is current for interval 17-18 January. Mildly depressed (10-15%)
conditions persisted longer than expected yesterday. Generally
good HF conditions expected today. Some southern Aus/NZ region
sites may again experience brief post dawn depressions of 10-15%.
Isolated fadeouts possible. MUFs are expected to remain mostly
near normal until late 16 Jan, afterwhich becoming midly to moderately
depressed (southern region Aus/NZ only) due to to anticipated
coronal hole wind stream induced activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 501 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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