[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 13 09:25:09 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 540 to 480 km/sec over
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mildly southward by up to 5nT 13-20UT. No significant
flares observed over past 24 hours. The two solar regions numbered
536 and 537 still have some flare potential, but have been relatively
quiet for about two days now. The western most region of the
two, region 536, will rotate off-disk in a few days time, and
is slowly decaying. Solar region 537 (now at N05W02) remains
quite magnetically complex, and has the greater flare potential.
A new region is just rotating onto the solar disk just south
of the solar equator, with the assumed leader spot just visible.
Another region is expected to rotate onto the solar disk just
north of the equator (possibly old 528). Both these new regions
appear to be producing isolated mass ejections from behind the
east limb. A north polar extension coronal hole is visible in
EIT imagery, now just east of solar central meridian. The Earth
is expected to enter the wind stream from this hole around late
16 Jan, with recurrence suggesting moderately elevated wind speeds
for two to three days at around 500km/sec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 2221 3233
Darwin 7 2221 2233
Townsville 9 2311 3232
Learmonth 9 2222 3232
Culgoora 8 1221 3232
Canberra 8 1221 3232
Hobart 10 1321 3333
Casey(Ant) 15 3--- 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JAN :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Culgoora 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 61 (Active)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 2234 4442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected next few days.
A coronal hole is expected to produce active periods late
16-18 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 70 near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 70 near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Some southern
Aus/NZ region sites may experience brief post dawn depressions
of 10-15%. Isolated fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 609 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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