[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 9 09:51:45 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1N 0507UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar region 537 (located at N03E67) produced the M1/2N
flare. Solar region 536 (located S12W04) again remained relatively
flare quiet. Solar wind speed declined from 700 to 500km/sec
over the UT day. It is unclear if this is an indication that
the Earth has left the current coronal hole wind stream earlier
than expected, or that the decline represents the easing of recent
weak mass ejection signatures superimposed on the coronal hole
wind stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated around neutral for most of the UT day.
Two weak mass ejection signatures may arrive on 9 Jan and 10
Jan associated with partially Earth directed activity from solar
regions 537 (7Jan) and 536 (8 Jan) respectively. Both these regions
remain flare capable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 2212 2122
Darwin 5 2212 2123
Townsville 8 2213 213-
Learmonth 5 2202 2122
Culgoora 5 1212 2123
Canberra 5 1212 212-
Hobart 6 2222 2123
Casey(Ant) 11 ---3 3221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JAN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 32 3455 5543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
10 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
11 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 7 January and
is current for interval 8-9 January. Overall gradual decline
in activity now expected, due to easing of solar wind conditions.
Active periods forecast next two days as two weak coronal
mass ejections may arrive on 9 and 10 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally improving trend in HF conditions. Chance of
mild to moderately degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes
next two days due to possible arrival of weak mass ejections.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 70 near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 70 near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 70 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 7 January
and is current for interval 8-9 January. Southern Aus/NZ regional
MUFs depressed yesterday. Improved conditions now expected today,
due to easing of solar wind speed. Chance for degraded condtions
on late 9 and 10 Jan due to possible arrival of weak mass ejections.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 684 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 291000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list