[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 8 10:10:22 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 0404UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8/-- 1027UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar region 537 (located at N04E76) produced the M4.5
and M8.3 events. Both events were associated with Type II radio
sweeps. Available LASCO space based coronagraph imagery suggests
that mass ejections were predomiately eastward directed. Also,
the xray flare profile of these flares was reasonably impulsive.
As such, geoeffectiveness of these events is expected to be low.
Further flares are likely from solar regions 537 and 536 (S10E12).
Solar region 536 did not produce significant flare activity over
the past 24 hours, however its location near the centre of the
disk would mean that any signifcant CME produced from this region
in coming days would most likely be geoeffective. Solar wind
conditions have been elevated (650km/sec) due to a coronal hole
wind stream. In addition effects of a weak shock which arrived
at 1927UT 06 Jan (associated with the M7/2N flare at 0345UT from
region 536 on 05 Jan) have produced southward IMF conditions
(10nT) during the first half of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 26 3355 4333
Darwin 23 3354 4333
Townsville 29 3255 5433
Learmonth 22 3245 433-
Culgoora 20 2245 4333
Canberra 32 -445 534-
Hobart 26 3354 5332
Casey(Ant) 33 --55 4434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JAN :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Culgoora 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 73 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20 3343 3335
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
09 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
10 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 7 January and
is current for interval 8-9 January. Minor storm periods associated
with weak glancing blow from recent mass ejection and coronal
hole wind stream effects. Coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects are expected to continue to produce active to minor storm
conditions over next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
09 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded conditions expected at mid to high
latitudes next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Blanketing sporadic E observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 35 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 35 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 35 depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 7 January
and is current for interval 8-9 January. Southern Aus/NZ regional
MUFs expecte to be lower than normal next few days. Northern
Aus region MUFs expected to mostly remain near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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