[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 7 10:55:15 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/-- 0629UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity was high today. New region
537(N04E76) produced an M5 flare at 0629UT. This flare was
also associated to a CME from the East side. This CME is not
earthward directed and is not expected to be geoeffective.
However the CME observed on 05 January seems to have arrived
as a weak shock was detected in the solar wind at 1927UT/06
January. The cumulative effect of this CME and the continuing
coronal hole effect may keep the solar wind strengthened on
07 January. The coronal hole effect is expected to keep the solar
wind stream strenghtend for approximatel two more days thereafter.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 650 to 550 km/s
(approx) by 1800UT and then increased to 650 km/s (approx) in
the next few hours. A sharp rise (upto 800 km/s)in the solar
wind speed has also been observed just at the time of issuing
this report and further analysis would be required to comment
on this. The interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +5 and -5nT for most of the UT day until 1900UT and
it then turned further south (-10nT approx) after that. Bz
has also just turned positive at the time of this report.
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at moderate levels
during the next three days. Region 536 is the largest region
on the disk. Regions 536 and 537 hold potential for major flare
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Mostly unsettled to
active with short isolated minor storm periods recorded at some high
latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 3343 2234
Darwin 11 3332 2234
Townsville 12 3333 2234
Learmonth 12 3332 2334
Culgoora 12 2342 2234
Canberra 14 3343 223-
Hobart 16 3443 2234
Casey(Ant) 13 ---3 3235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Culgoora 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22 4333 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 30 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
08 Jan 28 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
09 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 5 January and
is current for interval 6-7 January. The coronal hole effect
is continuining to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced. This
enhancement in the geomagnetic activity is expected to continue
for approximately three more days. The effect of the CME observed
on 05 January may also cause some enhancement in the geomagnetic
activity on 07 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may remain minor to moderately degraded
during the next 3 days as the enhancement in the geomagnetic
activity is expected to continue during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 24 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Jan 28 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
09 Jan 38 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on
5 January and is current for interval 6-7 January. Minor
to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed in Australian/NZ regions during
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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