[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 6 10:44:44 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/-- 0345UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was moderate today. An M6 flare
at 0345UT from region 536(S11E24) was the most significant
event of the day. This event was associated with a Type IV
radio sweep. The lasco images are not available around the
time of this event. The earliest image available is at
0900UT/05 January and it did show a faint CME expanding from
the South-East limb. Considering the location and expansion
of this CME it may probably be related to the M-flare. This
CME does not seem to be earthward directed. However, a
glancing blow on the earth may be observed late on 07 January
or in the first half of 08 January and solar wind stream may
show some strengthening because of that. The coronal hole
effect continues to strengthen the solar wind stream. The
solar wind speed increased from 560 to 640 km/s (approx)
during the UT day today by the time of this report. The
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +5
and -5nT for most of the UT day, staying southwards for
relatively longer periods. Solar activity is expected to
remain mostly at low to moderate levels during the next
three days. Region 536 is the largest region on the disk
and holds potential for M-flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Mostly unsettled to
active with minor storm periods recorded at some high latitude
locations.
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 4334
Darwin 14 3232 4334
Townsville 15 2333 4334
Learmonth 9 223- ----
Culgoora 15 3333 3333
Canberra 16 3333 4334
Hobart 21 3443 4434
Casey(Ant) 15 ---- 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Culgoora 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 105 (Major storm)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 24 3344 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 25 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
07 Jan 25 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
08 Jan 27 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 5 January
and is current for interval 6-7 January. The coronal hole
effect is continuining to keep the geomagnetic activity
enhanced. This enhancement in the geomagnetic activity is
expected to continue for approximately three more days. A
possible glancing blow from a CME may also cause a slight
enhancement in the geomagnetic activity late on 07 or early
on 08 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
07 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
08 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions may remain mild to moderately
degraded during the next 3 days as the enhancement in
the geomagnetic activity is expected to continue during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 47
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 32 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
8%
07 Jan 32 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
8%
08 Jan 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on
5 January and is current for interval 6-7 January. Minor
to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed in Australian/NZ regions during
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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