[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 5 10:29:29 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Only a few
B-class and low C-class flares were recorded, most of
these from region 536(S10E37).Today's largest flare has
been a C3.7 from region 536 at 1558UT. The coronal hole
effect continues to strengthen the solar wind stream. The
solar wind speed increased from 530 to 600 km/s (approx)
during the first few hours of the UT day today and then
remained between 550 and 600 km/s (approx) during the
rest of the day. The interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
remained predominantly southwards (mostly between -5 and
-10 nT). Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at
low levels during the next three days although isolated
M-flare may be possible from region 536, which is currently
the largest region on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 20 3233 5433
Darwin 20 3233 5433
Townsville 20 3233 5433
Learmonth 9 223- ----
Culgoora 16 2233 4433
Canberra 22 3243 5433
Hobart 22 3243 5432
Casey(Ant) 24 4--4 4433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JAN :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Culgoora 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Hobart 91 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 26 2355 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 30 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
06 Jan 27 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
07 Jan 27 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 3 January
and is current for interval 4-5 January. The coronal hole
effect is continuining to keep the geomagnetic activity
enhanced. This enhancement in the geomagnetic activity is
expected to continue for approximately three more days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
06 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
07 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions may remain mild to moderately
degraded during the next 3 days as the enhancement in
the geomagnetic activity is expected to continue during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 47
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Jan 38 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
8%
07 Jan 38 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
8%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on
3 January and is current for interval 4-5 January. Minor
to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed in Australian/NZ regions during
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 205000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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