[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 15 10:10:06 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Soalr activity was very low today. No significant
activity was recorded. The solar wind stream is still going
strong due to the continuing coronal hole effect. The solar
wind speed remained between 600 km/s and 650km/s throughout
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to mild (approx. +/- 5nT)
fluctuations throughout the UT day. The solar wind stream
may remain strong for one to two more days and start to
weaken thereafter as the coronal hole moves away from the
geoeffective position. The solar activity is expected to
remain very low during this period. Region 554(S09W14) is
the largest region on the visible solar disk and there is
some chance for this region to produce C-flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Mostly quiet to
active with short isolated minor storm periods recorded at some
high latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 2323 3333
Darwin 12 2323 3333
Townsville 11 2323 3323
Learmonth 17 3323 4433
Culgoora 12 2313 3333
Canberra 15 2223 4433
Hobart 14 2323 4333
Casey(Ant) 19 4--4 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 FEB :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 61 (Active)
Canberra 107 (Major storm)
Hobart 103 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21 4444 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
16 Feb 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible at high latitudes.
17 Feb 14 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 13 February
and is current for interval 14-15 February. Geomagnetic
activity expected to remain enhanced due to the continued
coronal hole effect for approximately two more days. Active
and isolated minor storm periods may be observed during this
time- especially at high latitude locations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may
be observed during the next two days- especially at mid and
high latitude locations due to anticipated continued enhancement
in geomagnetic activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 45 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 48 Depressed 5%/ near predicted monthly values.
17 Feb 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on
13 February and is current for interval 14-15 February.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be observed
during the next two days in Aus/NZ regions, especially in
the southern regions due to an anticipated continued rise
in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 661 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list