[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 14 10:19:15 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Soalr activity was very low today. No significant
activity was recorded. The solar wind stream is still going
strong due to the continuing coronal hole effect. The solar
wind speed remained between 600 km/s and 700km/s throughout
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to mild (approx. +/- 5nT)
fluctuations throughout the UT day. The shape of the coronal
hole suggests that the solar wind stream may remain strong
for one to two more days and start to weaken thereafter as
the coronal hole moves away from the geoeffective position.
The solar activity is expected to remain very low during
this period. Region 554(S10W02) is the largest region on the
visible solar disk and it may produce C-class solar flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Mostly unsettled to
active with short isolated minor storm periods recorded at some high
latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 4332
Darwin 13 2223 4333
Townsville 16 3333 4332
Learmonth 18 3333 4432
Culgoora 15 3333 3332
Canberra 16 3333 4332
Hobart 21 3434 4433
Casey(Ant) 22 4--4 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 FEB :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 84 (Minor storm)
Hobart 87 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 28 3455 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 22 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
15 Feb 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
16 Feb 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 13 February
and is current for interval 14-15 February. Geomagnetic
activity expected to remain enhanced due to the continued
coronal hole effect for approximately two more days. Active
and minor storm periods may be observed during this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may
be observed during the next two days- especially at mid and
high latitude locations due to anticipated continued
enhancement in geomagnetic activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the
UT day with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 38 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 45 Depressed 5%/ near predicted monthly values.
16 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on
13 February and is current for interval 14-15 February.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be observed
during the next two days in Aus/NZ regions, especially in
the southern regions due to an anticipated continued rise in
the geomagnetic activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 684 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 284000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list