[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 13 10:18:03 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Soalr activity was very low today. No significant
flare was recorded. The anticipated coronal hole effect has
significantly strengthened the solar wind stream that is
reaching the earth. The solar wind speed gradually increased
from 400 km/s to 700 km/s (approx) during the first half of
the UT day and then remained steady at this level during the
rest of the day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained positive during the first few
hours of the day and then showed minor to moderate North/South
fluctuations during the rest of the day. The solar wind stream
is expected to remain strong for the next two to three days
due to the continued coronal hole effect. The solar activity
is expected to remain very low during this period. Region
554 is the largest region on the visible solar disk. Regions
551(S08W69) and 554(S10E11) may produce C-class flares.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 12/1005UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 24 3454 3433
Darwin 20 3443 3433
Townsville 18 3443 3333
Learmonth 24 3443 4533
Culgoora 20 3444 3333
Canberra 28 3454 4444
Hobart 34 3555 4443
Casey(Ant) 40 4665 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 FEB :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Hobart 64 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 26 2114 5652
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 27 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
14 Feb 25 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
15 Feb 18 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 10 February
and is current for interval 11-13 February. Geomagnetic
activity expected to remain enhanced due to a coronal hole
effect during the next two to three days. Minor storm periods
may be observed during this time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Fair Fair Fair-Poor
14 Feb Fair Fair Fair-Poor
15 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
may be observed during the next two days- especially at
mid and high latitude locations due to anticipated continued
enhancement in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant depressions and
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 25 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 30 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 40 Depressed 5%/ near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on
12 February and is current for interval 12-13 February.
Mild to moderate degradations in HF conditions may be
observed during the next two days in Aus/NZ regions,
especially in the southern regions due to an anticipated
continued rise in the geomagnetic activity during this
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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