[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 12 10:48:22 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Soalr activity was very low today. A few B-class
flares were observed from regions 549(N14W80), 551(S08W56)
and 555(S14E44). Today's largest flare was a B7.1 from
region 549 at 0104UT. The earth seems to have entered the
high speed solar wind stream of the coronal hole as
anticipated. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from
400 km/s to 360 km/s (approx) during the first half of the
UT day and then showed a gradual increase to approximately
460 km/s by 2100UT. The solar wind speed is approximately
440 km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained slightly
positive until around 1000UT and then remained moderately
southwards (approx. -10nT) for the next 8 hours. Bz is
moderately positive (approx. +10nT) at the time of this
report. The solar wind stream is expected to remain
strengthened for the next three days due to the coronal hole
effect. The solar activity is expected to remain low during
this period. Region 554 is the largest region on the visible
solar disk. Regions 551 and 554 may produce C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 20 3223 4544
Darwin 20 3213 4544
Townsville 25 3223 4644
Learmonth 30 3213 5654
Culgoora 18 2113 4543
Canberra 22 2123 5543
Hobart 29 2123 5653
Casey(Ant) 21 33-4 4434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 FEB :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 2223 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 22 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
13 Feb 22 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
14 Feb 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 10 February
and is current for interval 11-13 February. Geomagnetic
activity expected to remain enhanced due to a coronal hole
effect during the next three days. Minor storm periods may
be observed during this time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
13 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
may be observed during the next three days- especially at
mid and high latitude locations due to anticipated enhancement
in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods of
depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 38 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 38 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 45 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in HF conditions may
be observed during the next three days in Aus/NZ regions,
especially in the southern regions due to an anticipated rise
in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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