[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 11 10:22:41 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was steady at around 380-400km/sec 
over past 24 hours, with mildly southward interplanetary magnetic 
field conditions. No significant flare activity ove rthe past 
24 hours. Two solar regions numbered 554 and 551 have the capability 
of producing isolated low level M class events. A coronal hole 
is now in the centre of the solar disk and the Earth is expected 
to enter the wind stream from this hole around 11 Feb. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 2212
      Darwin               4   1111 2212
      Townsville           4   1111 2213
      Learmonth            6   2102 3212
      Culgoora             4   1111 2212
      Canberra             7   2212 3212
      Hobart               7   1222 3212
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--2 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   2112 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
12 Feb    18    Active 
13 Feb    16    Active to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 10 February 
and is current for interval 11-13 February. Geomagnetic field 
expected to remain quiet to unsettled to be initially quiet/unsettled 
today then increasing to active levels late in the UT day, due 
to a solar coronal hole high speed wind stream. Chance for isolated 
minor storm periods local night hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today for most of the UT 
day today. A mild degradation in HF communications quality is 
possible from late 11 to 13 Feb at mid to high latitudes due 
to anticpated induced activity from coronal hole wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Feb    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
12 Feb    35    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for first half 
of UT day today. A mild degradation in HF conditions may be experienced 
from late 11 to 13 Feb, southern Aus/NZ region, due to anticipated 
effects from solar coronal hole wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    70800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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