[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Solar region 554 in the south-eastern solar quadrant 
produced several C class flares, the largest being a C9 flare 
around 11UT. Solar region 551 now west of the centre of 
the solar disk has been relatively flare quiet over the past 
24 hours, but still has flare potential. A coronal hole is now 
moving towards solar central meridian, visible in SOHO EIT 284 
imagery. Solar wind speed was at 400km/sec for most of the UT 
day. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at 350 to 400km/sec 
until 11 Feb when the Earth is expected to enter the wind stream 
from the coronal hole. Isolated M class events expected. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2121 2122
      Darwin               4   2111 1122
      Townsville           6   2121 2132
      Learmonth            7   223- -122
      Culgoora             4   1121 2121
      Canberra             4   1021 2120
      Hobart               5   1131 2122
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--2 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              8   1112 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb    12    Unsettled 
11 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
12 Feb    18    Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field expected to remain quiet to unsettled 
until 11 Feb, when active conditions are expected due to a solar 
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Chance for isolated minor 
storm periods local night hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected today. A mild 
degradation in HF communications quality is possible 11-12 Feb 
at mid to high latitudes due to anticpated induced activity from 
coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Feb    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Feb    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
12 Feb    35    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for today. A mild 
degradation in HF conditions may be experienced from late 11 
to 12 Feb, southern Aus/NZ region, due to anticipated effects 
from solar coronal hole wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    58200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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