[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 9 10:34:29 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 2051UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed varied from 360 to 480km/sec over the
UT day. Solar region 554 (S08E66) produced the M1 event. This
region is gradually roatating onto the visible disk and may be
growing. Solar region 551, currenlty the largest region on the
solar disk, now just west of solar central meridian, continues
grow and still has some flare potential, but as yet, has not
produced an M class event. Isolated low level M class events
possible. A transequatorial coronal hole remains visible in the
eastern solar hemisphere in SOHO EIT 284 imagery. 27 day recurrent
patterns indicate that elevated solar wind speed conditions from
this hole will be experienced during interval 11-12 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1113
Darwin 4 1112 1213
Townsville 3 1111 1123
Learmonth 2 0111 0212
Culgoora 2 0111 1113
Canberra 2 0111 1112
Hobart 2 0111 1112
Casey(Ant) 7 3--2 2123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 FEB :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 11 2233 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 12 Unsettled
11 Feb 16 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field expected to remain quiet to unsettled
until 11 Feb, when active conditions are expected due to a solar
coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: generally good HF conditions expected next two days.
A mild degradation in HF communications quality is possible 11-12
Feb at mid to high latitudes due to anticpated induced activity
from coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected next two days.
A mild degradation in HF conditions may be experienced 11-12
Feb, southern Aus/NZ region, due to possible effects from solar
coronal hole wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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